The Rise of Mobility : and the Disappearing Mobile Phone (Part 3)

Why the Mobile Phone will disappear.

We’re currently seeing inter-connected devices proliferating around us.  Our personal device(s) are interacting in real time with more and more connected “things” around us giving rise to the – the Internet of things
Simultaneously, the next phase of connectivity is commencing where we’ll start to adopt connected devices worn on us – and within us all interconnected with other devices around us.  The era of intra-connectivity.
Whilst in our inter-connected era, functionality has become concentrated into one device, in the intra-connected era new and some existing functionality will be again become a diffuse array of digital elements forming an intra-connected, self organising network.
In terms of the number of personal devices we carry around, we may currently be at the neck of the hour glass.
As minaturisation progresses devices will become increasingly unobtrusive and specialised in areas such as:
  • Visual interface – Screen(s)
  • Audio – interactive voice
  • Touch – typed input and screen interaction
  • Sensors – getting to know you (intimately)
  • Memory – who remembers phone numbers anymore?
  • Computer Power – faster, better stronger (& much smaller)
  • Juice – batteries and ambient charging
  • Connectivity – Wifi, bluetooth, 4G and beyond.
Over time, as advances are made in all of these areas, we’ll progress towards persistent ambient connectivity where (if we can afford the technology) we’ll become seamlessly and deeply intra-connected with things and people in our physical and virtual environments.
But first things first.  Why will the mobile phone as we know it will disappear?  If we take a look at just one of these items – the screen – you’ll start to get a more complete idea of where all of this is heading:

1. Flexible Screens

The primary design consideration, for today’s Smart Phone is the screen.  The phone has evolved from being a voice only “dumb phone” to become a personal audio-visual connectivity device designed around a  flat, thin, rectangular screen with everything else (GPS, Audio, connectivity, CPU, power, sensors etc) packed around and behind it.  This is about to change. 
Samsung and LG have recently set up production lines for flexible OLED screen technology which will enable foldable mobile devices and digital paper.
Once mass produced screens become rollable and foldable, the phone will no longer be constrained to the standard rectangular “biggest-sized-screen-that-you-can-fit-in-your-hand” form factor, which the industry has settled on for the moment.
With new screen technology it’s likely that the device industry will again experiment with new form factors for hand held connected screens.

2. Wearable Screens

Concurrent with the development of hand held screens, wearable screens are also on the way. This is a nascent field, however some early examples are available today:
Epson recently released their Moverio Wearable Display (below).  It’s an early stage device that has a wired remote control and, for now at least, is only extra-connected – i.e. it connects directly to the internet via WiFi but doesn’t inter-connect with a users existing smartphone or apps. So no access to – or interaction with:
  • personal connectivity – voice calls, SMS, IM, Skype, twitter etc.
  • owned content – audio, video (paid for or otherwise)
  • personal content ecosystems – spotify, iTunes, Amazon, Google Play etc.
Last month, Google showed off their Google Glass project which houses a mini screen in a spectacle frame just above eye level…
Now, I should mention here that interface devices have a patchy history.  For example Bluetooth headsets provide hands free voice communication and yet they haven’t hit mass market adoption for a number of reasons. Firstly, as voice communication is interactive, they can confuse people in the vicinity, or irritate them with half a conversation.  Secondly, as with anything new that stands out and looks different,  they can quickly become either cool, or not cool.
Because watching a video or viewing an AR overlay is generally a passive activity, some of this shouldn’t be such a problem for digital glasses.  Although I can imagine that talking to someone who’s staring distractedly up at their Google Glass screen will quickly become quite tiresome.

3. Integrated Wearable Screens

There are some concept-stage projects which will quickly push this tech forward.  A UK company, TPP, have developed glasses (below) which project augmented reality heads-up images onto clear glass, blending virtual information into the real life images around us – and unbeknownst to the people we are talking with in real life. This may be less obtrusive and therefore more immediately acceptable, however, this depth of integration also poses deeper questions about personal interaction which’ll need a whole other blog post.
Further out, research is underway to place this heads up video display into contact lenses to be worn on the eye.
This technology is still at the research stage and is being led by university labs such as the University of Washington.
This diagram below (courtesy of  ECN Mag) provides an idea of some of the component parts that are being squeezed onto a lens.
Models currently being tested typically number just tens of pixels, however even at this early stage, this technology promises huge advances for the blind and partially sighted. 
In a related development digital contact lenses are also showing promise as health sensors for chronic diseases such as Diabetes and Glaucoma. Many other medical sensor implants are in early stage development heralding still more intra-connectivity in the making. (I’ll cover more on bio-implant sensors separately).
It’s worth noting that a lead researcher at Washington University, Babak Parviz, recently joined the Google Glass project, providing an indication of how seriously digital contact lens technology is being taken and where the google project may be headed.

Bio-Implanted Screens

Finally, as a race, we humans strive for convenience.  For example, for the short or long sighted, contact lenses and spectacles are an inconvenience that can be done away with by undergoing LASIK laser eye surgery. Despite considerable controversy, concerns and an ongoing USA FDA reappraisal of the risks, LASIK laser eye surgery continues to gain popularity, with millions worldwide having had the operation.
As crazy as it may sound now, once millions of us are using digital glasses and digital contact lenses – it won’t be a huge leap to move from the idea of corrective eye surgery to a desire for digital implant eye surgery – once, of course, the technology is perfected. My guess would be that it’ll be at least generation or two from today.

Why does this herald the end of the phone as we know it?

Well, as I mentioned, the shape and design of the smartphone in your pocket is defined by the limits of current technology, especially the flat rectangular screen.  Once we’re wearing screens either as glasses or contact lenses (or possibly even implants), the utility of having a second large screened “phone” always with us will gradually become less and less essential over time.
When the screen becomes decoupled – but intra-connected – to everything else that we currently carry with us in a phone (data connectivity, audio interface, touch interface, Sensors, CPU, power etc.), the phone form factor will be freed up.  With nano-minaturisation, many of these other functions are themselves undergoing radical changes which will enable them to become distributed as separate wearable – or even bio-implanted – devices.  And all intra-connected.
Trying to forecast the when and the how of digital interaction is like forecasting where a wave breaking on a beach will carry individual grains of sand. We know know that the sand will shift, just not quite where to. 
The emergence of this next era of intra-connectivity will create epic opportunities for advancement for human kind. These will doubtless be accompanied by uncomfortable cultural adjustmentslegislative concerns and some serious ethical dilemmas.
On the plus side, it’ll take us a while to see most of this happen, so luckily we have some time to get ourselves prepared.

The Rise of Mobility : And The Disappearing Mobile Phone (Part 2)

The Era Of Inter-Connectivity Arrives

(This post follows on from The Rise Of Mobility – Part 1)

In 2012 we’re firmly in the era of Digital Inter-Connectivity. With devices now interconnecting with each other, either locally (e.g. bluetooth speakers streaming spotify from a phone or apple TV interacting with an iPad) or synchronised through the cloud (e.g. the wordpress apps that I use for this blog synchronising in real-time across two mobiles, an iPad and my desktop).

In addition, much digital functionality that was previously purchased stand-alone, in separate devices, is converging in a single mobile device (note: at least for now, see my next post). Where many people would once carry around a plethora of devices (a phone, a camera, a Satellite Navigation system,  a Walkman music player, a portable games console, a PDA etc) most of us now carry just one.  Our Smartphone.

The original 1999 chart is below and blogged about here:

An updated chart for 2012, including the rise of the mobile device, now looks something like this ( the original 1999 powerpoint updated):

Compared to the 1999 map,connected functionality in 2012 has gravitated towards the (mobile) center.

This convergence and inter-connectivity, has roughly coincided with the rise of web 2.0 and social media. As connectivity has become always on and always with us, so our digital personas have become always available and always present, turbo charging the social aspects of the web. I’m looking forward to covering this more in future posts.

As I’ve noted previouslyconnectivity is generally proliferating. Going forward, yet more devices will become internet connected as our lives continue the shift to the digitally connected. For example, the latest pocket cameras incorporate mobile Operating Systems and WiFi connectivity. Games consoles are becoming internet connected content terminals.

As miniturisation continues, more diverse functions will become mobile connected. For example, in what was once a highly specialist sector, the healthcare industry is seeing functionality such as medical scanning and monitoring become internet connected and enabled for the masses. Many of these functions are starting to become mHealth attributes of consumer mobile devices encouraging a cultural trend toward “DIY health”. Not surprisingly, companies focusing on solutions with the “m” prefix, such as mHealth, mGovernment, mCommerce and mEducation are in hot technology start-up areas – especially given the huge numbers of people worldwide who are about to be connected for the first time – which leads us to the next item.

Next? Smart Mobility for the Global Masses

This phase of inter-connectivity will finally bring ubiquitous availability of affordable internet enabled mobile devices to pretty much everyone.  By the end of this decade, 80%-90% of the worlds adult population will become connected to the internet via mobile devices.

In 2008 & 2009 the first Google Android OS handsets appeared, hailing the start of the mass global adoption of these converged mobile devices. The Android OS has been specifically developed to drive mass adoption. As it’s an Open Source and free-license Operating System, manufacturers can drive down prices to deliver truly affordable Smart Mobile Devices for US$20 or less.

Update: The chart below from Business Intelligence shows how rapidly smartphone adoption is accelerating between 2011 and 2012 alone. Look at Brazil and China, both going from almost zero smart Phones in 2011 to 14% and 33% respectively in 2012.

With “dumb” Mobile Phones already in the hands of six Billion people (as at the end of 2011) – and with cheap smart phones on the way – it’s easy to see that by the end of this decade the vast majority of the worlds population will become mobile internet connected.

Unlike the people who first became connected back in the 1990’s, the “newly connected” will start their digital lives mobile (in the center of the map). Mobile connectivity will then be augmented by additional connectivity as they gradually acquire and/or interact with other connected devices.

This the polar opposite of the PC centric adoption pattern for the “initially connected” in more developed countries – and is likely to exacerbate misconceptions that many internet companies have regarding the rise of mobile.

For me, an issue of our time is that this global digital connection of the masses can have a profoundly positive impact on our development as individuals and as a global society.  Hopefully we can realise this potential.  

Global access to knowledge will certainly radically change access to opportunities for billions of people.  There are also many challenges, not least the fact that there are innate incentives for elements of the internet to start to commoditise and commercialise the identities of all of its users (that includes you and me). This is a concept that governments, internet governance bodies and human rights groups are only now starting to grapple with.  

I’ll cover some of these issues in more detail in upcoming posts.

Next up: intra-connectivity and the coming disappearance of the mobile phone (yes seriously!).

The Rise of Mobility : And The Disappearing Mobile Phone (Part 1)

The Rise Of Mobile

I recently rediscovered a chart mapping digital interactivity that I created over a decade ago.  Back then we called it the “Multiple Digital Channel” Map.

I thought it might be interesting to dust it off and re-map it against where we are now, 13 years later. Drawing from a point in the past (1999) to where we are now – and continuing this line into the future – we get a rough idea about where we might be headed in the next 10-15 years.

It gives us three eras in the rise of connected mobility.  I’ve called them: extra-connectivity (without), inter-connectivity (between) and itra-connectivity (within).  Read on and see why.

The Digital Channel Map 1999 : Extra-Connectivity

Multiple Digital Channels

Way back in 1999, along with a few other lucky people, I was part of a mobile research and futurist team at Agency.com. Back then, just before the dot.com crash, it was a world leading interactive design agency.

We’d seen Internet adoption rise incredibly fast in the late 90’s in developed countries. A rapid evolution in the way that we all communicate was clearly underway.  Our task was to advise clients such as British Airways, Orange, General Motors and T-Mobile about what might be coming next.

Client teams in the London office, where we were based, were working on a range of new interactive “channels” including: early interactive TV on Satellite and Cable TV platforms (now the “red” button on UK remotes), and early stage mobile Internet technology, including WAP portals.  We came up with the term “Multiple Digital Channels” to describe the way that we believed the Internet would be accessed via different digital touch-points as  everything became connected.

To provide some context, at the time, the Nokia 7110 was the first consumer WAP phone, with very simple and very slow mobile web browsing.  None-the-less, the sight of pre-launch versions in the hands of Nokia employees at industry conferences was enough to cause gasps of wonder (and stifled envy).

Why the wonder?  We’ll, it was becoming clear that mobile devices would soon be a principle “digital connector”, capable of moving to and between all of the other other digital devices and Internet touch points in our lives;  the deliverer of ubiquitous attachment to the grid; to information, knowledge and each other.

The Map

So, in 1999 I attempted to chart future interactivity between digital devices on a chart (see below).   It maps the state of play, in 1999, for digitally connected devices and what we could now call the “initially connected” people who used them. Back then devices were still “extra-connected” i.e. connected to the web but not to each other (with the exception of the PDA). Almost all access was via a PC.

We expected, in 1999, that the items in grey would become internet connected in the next decade.  The items in black were considered either available, or imminent arrivals as concept models were being demonstrated (not a guarantee of a product launch though, as we’ll see!).   Items at the edge on the diagram were viewed as being static (e.g. a fridge).  Items in the middle, mobile, the ultimate being a “mobile” phone – which we figured would start to interconnect with all the other devices as it was the one device that was personal and could be carried everywhere.

Looking at it now, it still provides a very good framework for where we are now, 13 years later.  However, in terms of forecasting, we did miss a few things.

What we got wrong?

1) NEW DEVICES AND STUFF THAT DIDN’T GET CONNECTED (YET)

Some devices have evolved.  Others simply haven’t become connected for the mass market yet. For example:

  • Tablets such as the iPad didn’t exist (outside of the movies)
  • Fixed Phones evolving to become video enabled internet terminals (an imagined mix of Minitel and the Space Odyssey video phone) simply never took off, while Pay phones continue to disappear.
  • Connected “white goods” have yet to become widely available  (e.g. the “Net Fridge” which is still “coming soon” )
  • Gaming Consoles  (think xBox, PS2 etc) and connected TV’s are now arriving in earnest in 2012.
  • In Car Entertainment is still on-it’s-way (ahem)
  • In-flight WiFi is now finally gaining popularity and I understand that the next generation of In Flight Entertainment (IFE)  is likely to involve WiFi & internet enabled tablets.
  • As for Music players and Cameras? Well, see point 3 below.

2) THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF MOBILE BROADBAND  (OR: “IMAGINING THE FUTURE IS EASY, THE HARD PART IS MAKING IT HAPPEN”)

The second thing that we didn’t foresee (and which is obvious in hindsight) was the slow arrival of  the supporting infrastructure (3G) to enable all of this to happen.   In early 2000 we provided mobile content consultancy to Orange Telecom.  Their Network Engineering team briefed us that  90% of the UK population would have mobile broadband (3G) coverage by the end of 2002 – mid-2003, worst case.  Today in 2012, ten years later, delivery of ubiquitous mobile broadband coverage is still a contentious issue.

All of this is hardly surprising.  Networks cost billions of dollars to purchase and years to roll out.  It’s not a trivial endeavor to bathe billions of people in wireless broadband coverage.  On the plus side we’re now passing the tipping point and approaching mass global population coverage for mobile data. This is a big, big deal and I’ll come back to it in a minute to explain why.

3) DEVICE CONVERGENCE (MOBILE MANGE TOUT)

Finally, for me, the biggest thing we missed is the shift from a plethora of separate specialised digital devices to a convergence of functionalities on a single device – the mobile/cell phone.   As well as interacting with other connected devices, the last decade has seen the mobile “phone” gobbling up, adopting and absorbing multiple attributes of other devices.  Through the 2000’s this new mobile device has merged with and mastered:

  • The PDA: replacing the Palm Pilot (launched 1997) and the iPaq (1998)
  • Music Players: The first portable MP3 player, Creative’s DAP launched at the same time as Siemens first mobile with an MP3 player (both in 2001)
  • Cameras: Gradually appeared and improved from Sharp & Kyocera (1997) to Nokia’s first true camera replacement (2002). Meanwhile, cameras are only now starting to become internet connected 0 see Samsung pic below (launched last month).
  • e-mail and messaging: RIM Blackberry 5810 (launched 2002)
  • Gaming devices: Nokia N-Gage (2003)

Through most of the 2000’s the industry slowly bundled all of these attributes together in a wide variety of weird and wonderful form factors through multiple iterations.  The arrival of the iPhone, and crucially the App Store, from Apple in 2007/2008, although not adding anything “new” in terms of functionally, finally brought all this together (device, connectivity, functionality, content ecosystem)  in a user friendly way. One single device designed holistically rather than as separate bolt-on elements. Enter the era of device “Inter-Connectivity”

Tomorrow On Monday I’ll post the map updated for 2012, showing today’s world of  “InterConnectivity”.

 

Beyond Mobile And Multi-Screens: What’s Next?

Right this second, you’re more connected than any other human before you. Thousands of people, facts, thoughts and things become accessible to you as you read each of these words.

Big deal? Well, I guess we’re all aware that we’re living through an era loosely termed as the “Information Age“.

Each day sees a plethora of different articles and posts published which, in equal measures, document and examine, celebrate and angst about the possible cultural, social and political changes that we’re possibly about to experience.

Well, I recently rediscovered a chart that I created back in 1999 with the intention of mapping the rise of our emerging digital interactivity. With a little updating, it helps to break through the clutter and provide us with a rough “you are here” view (I’ll post more about the “Multiple Digital Channel” map in the next couple of days).

Looking at it again now we can also get an idea of where we’ll probably be in another 15 years.  It looks like we’re just about at the “end-of-the-beginning”. And there’s much more to come.

The Three Phases Of Connecting:

There are 3 broad phases in the rise of our ongoing connectedness:

1. Where We’ve Been: Extra-connecting (1990 to early 2000’s). Think:

  • desktop computers & early laptops connect to the internet individually as “extra” add-on functionality via dial-up modems and early broadband
  • computer use is primarily corporate and initially immobile (desktops and servers)
  • 1st & 2nd Generation mobile phones move from being corporate productivity tools to become consumer communication devices
  • emergence of early mobile computers: PDA’s (Personal Data Assistants)
  • e-mail and Instant Messaging becoming pervasive at work and home

2. Where We Are: Inter-connecting (early 2000’s to mid-2010’s). Think:

  • Internet connectivity starts to be viewed as a utility 
  • Inter-connectivity of devices gradually becomes pervasive (multiple screens)
  • personal device (phone) form & functionality goes through rapid evolution, settling on a single large rectangular screen form factor (content is king)
  • smarter devices start to interact – enabling mass social interaction (Social Media)
  • everyone becomes connected: being always-on, connected and available is the expected norm
  • more peripheral electronics (white goods, TV’s) start to become extra and inter-connected

3. Where We’re Going: Intra-connecting (mid-2010’s to 2030 and beyond). Think:

  • persistent ambient connectivity – where we are seamlessly and deeply intra-connected within our environment and with others when we choose to be (we hope)
  • devices become more personal and proliferate:
    • devices become wearable e.g. screens in spectacles evolve into contact lens screens
    • bio-implant devices gradually become acceptable:
      • initially for health monitoring and maintenance (e.g. blood sugar & blood pressure: monitoring, analysis, alerts, preemptive advice)
      • then increasingly to enhance performance (e.g. memory,  well being  analysissituation awareness etc.)
  • the Internet of Things – everything becomes connected, tagged and recognisable:

These three phases are far from finite. They’re a work in progress. They flow into each other organically as people adopt and discard new behaviours, in turn further evolving the underlying technology.

“The future is already here – it’s just not very evenly distributed” – William Gibson

Importantly, access to these technologies and new capabilities depends on your culture, context and access to cash. If we truly believe in creating a meritocratic world where everybody has an equal chance to progress, concerns regarding a growing global digital divide will also need to be addressed.

“If you understood everything I said, you’d be me”

― Miles Davis

For many, a greater concern will be the ways in which our sense of self and identity evolve as social pressure grows to be perpetually connected and visible to the “hive“.

Viewed together, the changes will doubtless be profound. Yet as we live through them, what once seemed like science fiction very quickly becomes normal and even unremarkable. How cool is e-mail these days?

“We know what we are, but not what we may be.” 
― William Shakespeare

Knowing as we do, in very broad terms, what’s coming, we might just have a rare and, as a race, unique opportunity to get ahead of ourselves.

I’ll be exploring and expanding on this theme with posts in the next few weeks – and will update this post with cross links as I do so.

If you have any thoughts please feel free to share.

Are Mobile Operators missing a trick with 4G?

TelecomPaper posted an article last week about Vodafone’s roll out of FemtoCells in European Markets (Femtos are small mobile broadband (3G/4G) “base transmitters” that provide additional, very localised coverage – in a home or office). The major benefit for Mobile Operators is that they connect into their mobile network via a standard home or office broadband link – so the purchaser picks up the cost of the broadband link.  TelecomPaper questioned if this consumers wouldn’t think this is infact a bit of a con, as they pay full Mobile Telco voice tariffs for a service which piggybacks on the consumers own broadband connection.

Which makes me think, Operators are missing a trick here. As simultaneously, a major issue that has Operators scratching their heads about as mobile broadband explodes, is how to provide hugely better and faster access to mobile broadband with 4G coverage.  A consensus is forming around deployment of “small cells” in congested areas. An issue is getting the rights to install the cells.

Surely, combining the two would make sense?  Mobile Operators could provide an option to make the Femto multi-use and reduce the price to the consumer in a fair exchange of value.  In areas of high 3G/4G usage they could even offer the devices for free.

The fill article can be viewed here.

My comment:

Good read, there are some interesting parallel developments. The mobile phone is gradually replacing the fixed phone as the main residential phone, meanwhile a femto is effectively a “small cell”. There may be benefits to operators beyond viewing it as as a home coverage device. By making it “public” the returns would (on average) be higher per device, thereby underwriting the HW cost. The price to the customer could then be significantly reduced. It might even be worth Operators offering Femtos at cost in areas with low coverage (rural) or, better still, high demand (city high-streets) as part of a wider roll out plan for LTE. This might be especially valuable for operators on higher LTE frequencies with weak indoor penetration. As for WiFi issues, smart phones automatically prioritise WiFi access over 3/4G, the issue Femto fixes for the user is the ability to make and receive traditional calls & SMS. It may even be worth Operators considering bundling a WiFi router with the Femto.

This isn’t a new idea.  In the UK British Telecom do the same with their WiFi Routers, although sadly not with consumers permission.  Doing something similar with Femtos – but with pricing built into the offering should benefit everyone.